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Here's a quick preview of today’s newsletter: Kenya’s tourism sector eyes $4.33B boost, South Africa delays its budget over VAT dispute, P1 raises $50M for AI and fintech, and significantly more private capital is flowing to francophone Africa.

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Data as of 02/21/2025 market close

Four Things You Need to Know

Tourism boom: Kenya expects tourism earnings to rise 24% to $4.33 billion in 2025, driven by record arrivals and expanded travel offerings. Government-led marketing, improved air connectivity, and surging cruise tourism fuel the sector’s rebound, with the U.S., Uganda, and Tanzania remaining top visitor sources.

Budget standoff: South Africa postponed its budget presentation after coalition disputes over a proposed % VAT hike to 17%. The ANC, lacking a parliamentary majority, faces opposition from the DA, highlighting fiscal policy uncertainty as the country grapples with debt, spending pressures, and investor concerns.

VC fund: P1 Ventures closed its first institutional fund at $50 million, backing AI and fintech startups beyond Africa’s traditional tech hubs. With Accel co-investing in Moroccan AI firm Nuitee, the firm’s data-driven strategy signals sustained confidence in Africa’s high-growth venture market.

Capital flows: Francophone Africa attracted $4.8 billion in private capital across 356 deals between 2012 and first-half 2024, with investment activity doubling since 2021 per AVCA data. Senegal, Côte d’Ivoire, and the DRC lead the boom, while fintech, edtech, and cleantech dominate as private capital plays an increasingly bigger role in the investment scene.

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Headline Roundup

Markets & Finance

• Ivorian Firm Sucrivoire Returns to Profitability After Strong Growth

• Nigerian Giant Lender FBN Holdings Transitions to First HoldCo

• NSIA Banque, CDC-CI Capital Sign $4.9M Deal on Green Investments

• Financial Sector Dominates Africa Stock Markets as Banks Lead Listings

Economy & Macro

• Mozambique’s Economy Sees Biggest Contraction in Seven Years

• Egypt, Cyprus Sign Gas Export Deals Amid Cairo Energy Push

• Nigeria’s Inflation Slows to 24% After Data Revision by NBS

• South Africa Jobless Rate Falls as Finance, Manufacturing Add Jobs

Corporate & M&A

• China's Transsion Maintains Dominance in Africa Phone Market

• Ethiopia, UK’s Asset Green Partner on $600M Dairy Project

• Barrick Gold Reaches Deal With Mali to End Mining Dispute

• Altvest is First African Listed Firm to Adopt Bitcoin as Reserve Asset

VC, Startups & Tech

• EIB Invests $15.7M in IPAE Fund to Boost African SMEs

• AUDA-NEPAD Opens Applications for E-Health Startup Accelerator

• Madica Expands Portfolio With $800K Investment in Four Startups

• MANSA Secures $10M to Scale Stablecoin Cross-Border Payments

What Else We’re Reading

• Top Themes Africa Investors Should Watch in 2025

• Debt, Elections, Growth: WAEMU High-Stakes Year Ahead

• Benin’s IPO Market Heats Up Amid Economic Reforms

• Big Reset: Uranium-Rich Niger Set for Rapid Growth

Chart of the Week

Africa Regional GDP Growth Outlook, 2024 – 2025

West Africa’s growth engine: Alongside rapid economic growth and expanding public markets, private capital is playing an increasingly bigger role in francophone Africa’s investment scene. 

Recent data from AVCA shows private capital flows to the region have grown significantly over the past decade. 

Here are some key takeaways from the report:

• Since 2012, $4.8B had been invested across 356 private capital deals by H1 2024

• From 2021-2023, annual deal volume rose ~2x to 44 deals vs. 23 (2012-2020) 

• Average deal values grew from $10.3M to $13.2M over the same period

• Côte d’Ivoire, Senegal, and DRC drove nearly 50% of all deal activity since 2012

• Venture capital accounted for 60% of private capital deals (up from 17% pre-2020)

What's driving this growth? 

The rise of venture capital, better regulations, investments in sustainable infrastructure, and perhaps most excitingly, the emergence of tech innovation reshaping traditional sectors.

Beyond these, francophone Africa is an attractive destination for global investment capital given its rapid economic (GDP) growth, shared monetary union (and currency pegged to the Euro), language (French), and cultural ties across different geographies.

While still smaller than other African markets, the region is quickly catching up and seeing an increasing alignment with broader continental investment trends.

That’s it for today.

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